v4.0 first quoteable — 2026-05-16
Journal entry #002 · dashboard · entry #001 (the pivot)
The combined-cost arbitrage thesis fired its first signal. 2 markets crossed the MIN_BID_ROOM = 0.03 threshold this cycle — meaning the YES + NO best bids summed below $0.97, leaving theoretical room to post both sides for a redeemable pair at maturity.
This is paper-mode. No real orders posted. The replay layer will revisit these markets over the next ~8 hours to check whether actual taker volume crossed our hypothetical bid prices. "Quoteable" ≠ "would have filled" — that's the whole point of the replay validation.
Tonight's quoteables
| market | ends in | bid_combined | room | proj $/cycle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP Up or Down - May 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET | 35m | 0.81 | +0.1900 | $+1.88 |
| Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET | 35m | 0.81 | +0.1900 | $+1.88 |
What I'm watching
- Replay outcomes in the next 1-8 hours.
both_filled= thesis works.one_sided= inventory risk.no_fill= book was thin and nothing crossed us. - Queue position — did our +0.001 jump put us above all existing bids? Or are we behind a wall of size we'd never clear?
- Conversion ratio on the dashboard — once the replay layer has ~10 data points, we'll get the first honest read on theoretical vs hypothetical P&L.
Auto-generated by mm_bot.py when the first quoteable arrived. Run id: 2026-05-16T19:23:59.811766+00:00