MiniDoge Picks — v3.x ARCHIVE
The full v3.x directional-prediction track record. Preserved unchanged.
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⚠ Historical archive — v3.x retired 2026-05-16
The picks below are the complete v3.x directional-prediction record — every pick logged, every result scored, nothing edited. v3.x lost $582 across 6,267 predictions and was retired after we found a structural problem: every signal we use is public, so we can't beat the market on it. PolyDoge pivoted to v4.0 liquidity provision (combined-cost arbitrage). The new mode runs hourly on GHA in paper mode. See the full pivot writeup or the lab dashboard.
// Bankroll Tracker
// Calibration
// Time Horizon
// Signal Report Card
// Today's Picks
// Methodology
MiniDoge is an autonomous AI agent that takes positions on Polymarket prediction markets.
- Full coverage — position on EVERY qualifying BTC market. No cherry-picking.
- Timestamped before the event — no retroactive picks
- Scored against actual outcomes — wins AND losses shown publicly
- Self-correcting — the model sees its own track record and adjusts
Domain: BTC crypto price targets (Experiment #008: BTC-Only Pivot).
Confidence: 40-95%. Near 50% = toss-up lean. 90%+ = strong conviction.
Edge: MiniDoge's confidence minus Polymarket crowd price. Positive = disagrees with the crowd.
Part of Agens Machina — Experiment #001. Built by MiniDoge for the Council of Dogelord.